Ridin' With Biden

Abe and I hash out the first presidential debate

Abe: America's a big country; Dems are a big party; surely Joe Biden's not the only person who can represent the Dems. Surely there's one person who can replace Joe. Gavin Newsome looks good to me.

Have a Dem leadership convention. Let's get some new candidates up and talking, and get people talking about them. All that free publicity. And excitement. Re-galvanize the party, change the narrative.

Bob: Apparently you missed Newsom after the debate. The idea that Gavin Newsom would abandon Joe Biden after this debate is insulting to both men, Abe.

STOP. THE. BEDWETTING. RIGHT. NOW. The guy had a cold, for crying out loud.

Abe: I'm tired and disturbed by what I saw tonight - my wife left after 5 minutes; I lasted about 40 minutes. I hate Trump to the bottom of my soul (and have been sounding the warning for 2 years on my site), and I love Joe Biden for beating Trump in 2020 and for doing a great job since then.

So I'll lay out my concern in an orderly way:

1. Job Number One is to defeat Trump. And soundly, because a narrow win will set off another round of "rigged" and "stolen". Beating Trump = Saving American Democracy. Period. That's the job: defeat Trump soundly.

2. Biden & the Dems are currently trailing or barely even in the critical swing states, where 10-50,000 votes could give it to Trump. That's too close for comfort.

3. Biden has to GROW his support, negate the "too old" narrative, and pull back in the doubters and 3rd party protest voters. With close margins in swing states, the Dems need a new gust of wind in our sails, so tonight was Biden's chance to hit the home run, show the doubters that he's all in, and start the great re-boot.

4. Tonight Biden's performance did not, in my opinion, set off that great reboot of pulling back into the fold those doubters and protesters that are needed to re-build the Blue coalition to the point of soundly defeating Trump.

5. To me, his performance did the opposite; he heightened the concern about whether he can keep up the good fight for 4 more years. I think the Dems needed him to hit a home run, to show that the "too old" is a Republican fiction, to inspire and motivate the doubters to come back and get the ball rolling to soundly trounce Trump.

6. It's not about loyalty to Joe Biden; it's about soundly defeating Trump. Which means pulling in MORE supporters. Which he didn't do tonight. Worse, he re-enforced the doubters' doubts.

7. Repeat the key phrase: it's not about loyalty to Joe Biden; it's about soundly defeating Trump. And after watching him tonight, I don't think he started the great Blue Re-boot to soundly defeat Trump. And with the next debate 3 months away, I don't see how he can do it.

8. I saw Kamala Harris kick total ass in her interview with Anderson. Sure she defended Biden (what else could she do) but my thought was: if she had been on that stage with Trump she would have torn him a new one. She defended Biden's "substance and policies". Right. But she made the case far better than Biden. In other words, she could carry the same ball much more effectively against Trump than Biden.

9. I think you might remember Muhammed Ali's sad come-back fight when he could barely raise his arms; he was truly The Greatest, but he had passed his expiry date. I think Joe has passed his. And there's a strong bench (like Kamala tonight) who could take up the same torch (same substance and policies) much more effectively, stirring up those doubters and protesters to come back to the cause, and she (or Newsome, or Whitmer, or others) could get that great re-boot rolling.

10. Because the bottom line is to DEFEAT TRUMP SOUNDLY, and that requires pulling back together the 2020 coalition, and that, to me, will require new leadership.

11. I don't care that he had a cold; I care only whether he started the great Dem re-boot that is needed to defeat Trump. And I don't think he did. The polls will stay the same, or, god-forbid, get worse for the Dems.

12. I hate Trump and I love Joe, but I thought tonight: Joe, thank you for beating Trump in 2020, but I don't think you can do it in 2024. Maybe you can, but the stakes are too high. Pass the baton. This isn't a one-man-race; it's a team sport, a relay race, and it's time to pass that baton to someone who can start a whole new narrative.

13. Lucky 13: it's not about "abandoning Joe" - it's about beating Trump soundly. And after tonight I don't think Joe's the man for the job. Not this time. Pass the baton to the next runner - Kamala, Gaven, Elizabeth, someone who will start a new narrative and a new wave of enthusiasm.

14. Well, I think I explained my reasons to myself, and hopefully it'll resonate with others.

Bob: Okay Abe, you know I respect you and we've had a lot of great exchanges. But honestly, I think you're falling victim to a few fallacies that a gimlet eyed ex-GOP consultant like Rick Wilson would never buy into. He'd see your reaction and read it for what it is -- classic Democratic bedwetting, the moment when the ideal vision you had for something confronted a hard reality. And this is just the way we Democrats are made. We're neurotic worriers. We yearn for ideals.

The first mistake is one that most of us made on this thread earlier, myself included, which is to blow the debate up into something much bigger than it is. Never forget that televised presidential debates starting with Nixon v Kennedy were not begun for a civic purpose, they were designed for TV ratings. They're theater, and as such, we read into them the metaphors of spectacle. We dream of a "knockout blow." We yearn to see our candidate thoroughly annihilate their opponent. But debates rarely, if ever, work out that way. They might deliver a moment like that which lights up the chattering classes, but they rarely move the needle.

Perform a thought experiment: Imagine if Joe Biden brought his SOTU A-game and wasn't suffering from a cold (and bear in mind it takes a lot more bodily energy for an older person to fight off a cold and consider that Joe was doubtless on some congestion medication that is a mild CNS depressant) and all the Democrats in the spin room were high-fiving each other. Joe really took it to that bastard Trump! This is the narrative we were all dreaming of, but do you really think it would have moved the needle? The people who think Joe's too old would still think Joe's too old. TrumpCo would spin it as Joe's on drugs.

Again, I don't think any presidential debate has landed a knockout punch.

Now consider some of the things that Trump said. "I did not have sex with a porn star." He'd prosecute Biden without naming a crime. He constantly changed the subject and refused to answer questions, including saying not one word about a crucial issue for young people, anthropogenic global warming. The moderators and format put Biden in the horrible position of having to spend half his time fact-checking Trump when it should have been their job. This debate performance certainly didn't win Trump any new friends.

And consider Joe Biden's history. He had some wretched debate performances in the '20 primary and as an Elizabeth Warren supporter, I was dancing on his grave. Do you remember that insane, long grandpa ramble about using "phonograph records" to help educate preschoolers? We all thought he was dead in the water, way too old, on the verge of senility. And then SC happened and the rest is history. Don't count Joe Biden out. He's been underestimated his entire career and the man never gives up. And that's a feature, not a bug. Expect him to show up for the September debate and hope and pray if you must that he brings his A-game. Because Joe Biden is not leaving this race.

Finally, for all practical purposes you are encouraging us to abandon Joe. And the entire Democratic Party besides. You present the Underpants Gnome theory of political change. Joe and Kamala bow to the pressure and drop out. And then what ????? Your answer is a few magic rabbits to pull out of your hat, but you haven't begun to consider the implications of a contested convention this close in. Gavin Newsom shot you right down, my friend. He's all in for Joe. And as much as I've grown to admire Kamala, her poll numbers are considerably worse than Joe's. None of your magic rabbits are within 10 points of Trump, nor do they have the money in their campaign coffers. That's why Josh and Gretchen haven't peeped.

You want to guarantee Trump gets back in office, Abe? Advocate for a contested convention and bask in the carnage and Democratic fratricide.

I'm ridin' with Biden.

Abe: I hear you, Bob.

And we've both been in the trenches a long long time.

And I hear you about the risk of a contested convention, and the risk of "the carnage and Democratic fratricide." We've seen that before. (I remember sadly watching Bernie Sanders allow a "Lock Her Up" chant at one of his rallies)

BUT, there's also a risk of ridin' with Biden.

The risk, to me, is that right now he doesn't have it in the bag, far from it. And with the close margins in swing states he could very possibly lose this thing. Which would be catastrophic for America.

So I'm weighing the two risks - ridin' with Biden, which currently doesn't seem like a winning strategy, the 2020 coalition ain't there, and the odds are daunting. Or, go for the great change and the new leader and a whole new campaign.

And I'd like to respond to your point: " for all practical purposes you _are_ encouraging us to abandon Joe. And the entire Democratic Party besides."

I'm not "abandoning" Joe, I'm saying thank you for your service, and asking him to pass the baton to folks who can sell the same substance and policies much more forcefully. And I'm certainly not abandoning the "entire Democratic Party." On the contrary, I'm suggesting (ok, advocating) that a new leader could re-invigorate the party and, most importantly, appeal the those potential (and former) Dem voters who aren't buying Joe.

So yes, it's risky, but I don't think it's too late. And it's more than one bad debate with a cold. He's done his job, and thank god for Joe Biden.

But isn't it worth considering a new leader and a new campaign. I mean, this one ain't really setting people on fire.

Bob: The post-debate freakout is going to settle down pretty quickly. You will hear no serious Democratic Party poobah advocating that Joe and Kamala bow out, certainly within a week, probably in a few days. You make the unsupported assertion that it's not too late when there isn't a political consultant of either party who would tell you that it isn't. Not after the primaries are nearly finished and Joe won all of them with Saddam Hussein-esque margins against token candidates.

None of this is to deny the cold reality that Joe's numbers aren't where they should be or that Joe had a cold, was doubtless on some cold medicine and had a less than stellar debate. But the idea of encouraging him to step aside when he's been the best Democratic president since LBJ just doesn't parse. It confuses the image of a candidate with the job of being president. I want a president.

There's a risk with Biden, surely. But somehow convincing Biden and Harris to remove themselves from the ticket is a guaranteed calamity. You really haven't thought this out. There is no obvious heir apparent, certainly none who has been tested by the voters. We stopped doing the smoke filled room thing and nominating presidents at the party convention decades and decades ago. Who's to say who the DNC decides will replace Biden will be popular rather than the voters feeling (rightfully) it's rammed down their throats?

I mean, you're really indulging in fantasy wishcasting here. What if rivalries develop at the convention? How are potential nominees supposed to fight it out without having garnered popular support? I'm not saying you're intending to trash the entire national Democratic Party but that's what the net effect will be. You are offering the GOP their dream scenario on a silver platter, guaranteed to piss off any given faction of Democrats enough to stay home.

Furthermore, Abe, you're ignoring the lessons of history. Does Chicago 1968 ring a bell? How about Ted Kennedy softening up Jimmy Carter and Pat Buchanan softening up Poppy Bush? Contested conventions wreak havoc on the incumbent party.

So no, Abe, you won't get your pony. But if you want Trump to lose, you'll sigh, maybe moan a little more and, in the end, you will put your shoulder to the wheel for our best president since LBJ.